• Philippine Resources

The Philippines May Become The World’s 18th Biggest Economy By 2050

As long as it addresses its lack of infrastructure and long-term projections, the Philippines may be the world’s 18th biggest economy by 2050.

In a report by the London-based Capital Economics, the nominal gross domestic product of the country may rise up to $4.862 trillion three decades from now with the nominal GDP per capita rising to $33,650. Because of the low 2019 base, Capital Economics has projected the GDP to rise by 11 per cent this year and the next.

In terms of nominal GDP at market exchange rates, the latest prediction showed that the Philippines in 2050 may just fall behind the United States, China, India, the United Kingdom, Egypt, Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Canada, South Korea, France, Germany, Italy, and Japan.

Capital Economics expects the yearly expansion of the Philippines at an average of 7.9 per cent in 2021-2025; 5.3 per cent in 2026-2030, and 4.4 per cent in 2031-2050.

The firm also noted that with inflation being steady, in 2021-2025, it is with an average of 2.9 per cent and in 2026-2050, 3 per cent. As for headline inflation, an average of 4.9 per cent in 2006-2010, 3 per cent in 2011-2015, and 2.9 per cent in 2016-2020. As for the projectivity in the economy, 5.9 per cent growth in 2021-2025; 3.6 per cent in 2026-2030; and 3.3 per cent in 2031-2050.

The increasing population can also boost the economy - a domestic consumer and labour market to reach 117 million by 2025, 124 million by 2030, and 144 million by 2050.

In the ASEAN region, with the Philippines may be overtaking Thailand’s nominal GDP, neighbouring countries such as Indonesia and Vietnam may overtake the Philippines. The nominal GDP of Indonesia may rise from 16 to 7 by 2050. Meanwhile, Vietnam may surpass Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines as the economy would jump from 35 to 14 in 2050; Malaysia ranks 26th in 2050; Thailand, 31st; Singapore, 40th.

On a nominal GDP per capita basis, Singapore may be the biggest in ASEAN by 2050 at $233,663 per person. By the middle of the century, in Indonesia, $36,314; in Vietnam, $56,048; Malaysia, $67,460; and Thailand, $36,011—all higher than in the Philippines.

According to Capital Economics chief Asia economist Mark Williams, Bangladesh, India and Vietnam would benefit from manufacturing and export-led growth in the long term. India’s GDP may rank third in 2050 while Bangladesh would be at 20th. In the case of the Philippines, Capital Economics senior Asia economist Gareth Leather said that low costs and improving the business environment in the country might help the country become a manufacturing powerhouse over the next decade.


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