The interplay of geopolitics and natural resources has become increasingly pronounced in modern times, with countries vying for access to critical minerals vital for economic and technological development.
Recent events, such as the hostility between Israel and Iran, with the United States striking Iran’s three nuclear sites, have significant ripple effects on resources globally, especially on energy, supply chains and humanitarian aid.
Even without the current tensions in the Middle East, geopolitical interests have been seen as a major driver of activity for mining and metals.
In a 2024 study among developed markets conducted by White & Case, 45% of respondents identified economic and geopolitical interests (geopolitics, critical minerals policies, resource nationalism and reconfiguration of global supply chains) as the top driver, followed by climate change, ESG and decarbonization initiatives (24%); inflationary and metal supply pressures (21%); Chinese economy slowdown (7%); and other factors (2%).
Supply chain disruptions are also seen as the biggest potential impact of geopolitical tensions (58%), followed by slowdown in actual commodity demand and deflationary pressures from slow growth (27%).
While geopolitics may be seen as impacting natural resources, it has long been posited that our requirements for natural resources in fact dictate geopolitical dynamics, which influence nations’ interactions on the global stage.
Some factors which have led to the rise of natural resources in the determination of geopolitics and the growing competition for access and control of resources include “rapid industrialization, rising demand for energy, emergence of new markets and depletion of natural resources at a disconcerting rate.” [“Geopolitics of Natural Resources” (2012) by Nishtha Chugh]
In a paper entitled “Resources: Geopolitics Around IT” [Bhawani Prasad Sharma (2022), four points of significance of natural resources in shaping international relations were identified:
- Economic significance: Natural resources, such as oil, minerals, and agricultural products, are essential for economic development. They drive industries, generate revenue through exports, and are critical for maintaining a country's economic stability and growth.
- Strategic significance: Control over certain resources can confer strategic advantages. For example, oil-rich countries often wield significant influence in global affairs due to their ability to impact energy markets. Similarly, access to rare minerals essential for high-tech industries can be strategically advantageous.
- Political Significance: Natural resources can influence political dynamics within and between countries. Resource abundance can lead to conflicts over control and distribution, while resource scarcity can create vulnerabilities and drive cooperation or competition for access.
- Environmental Significance: The exploitation of natural resources can have significant environmental impacts, leading to environmental degradation, pollution, and climate change. These environmental issues can in turn influence international relations, as countries seek to address common challenges through cooperation or face conflicts over environmental resources.
The following types of natural resources were identified in terms of their geopolitical importance in international relations:
- Energy Resources
- Oil and Gas: Countries rich in these resources hold significant geopolitical influence because of their control over global energy supplies.
- Renewable Energy: The rise of renewable energy such as solar and wind energy is introducing a shift in geopolitical dynamics, in that more countries are investing in renewable technologies to lessen dependence on fossil fuels and to enhance energy security.
- Minerals and Metals
- Rare Earth Elements: These are essential elements for electronics and high-tech industries, and those countries who hold a dominant position in production have more geopolitical influence.
- Precious Metals: Metals such as gold, silver, and platinum hold significance because of their value and perceived stability.
- Water Resources
- Freshwater: Access to this is essential for agriculture, industry and human survival hence, disputes over water resources often lead to tensions and conflicts among nations.
- Agricultural Resources
- Food Security: Countries with abundant agricultural resources may use this as leverage when it comes to trade and diplomatic negotiations.
- Forests and Timber
- Biodiversity: This holds ecological value which may economically benefit countries.
- Fisheries
- Marine Resources: Access to marine resources, such as fish stocks, can be a source of contention between countries, leading to disputes over fishing rights and maritime boundaries.
Locally, the Chamber of Mines of the Philippines has observed that heightened geopolitical risks typically drive up gold prices with investors seeking safe-haven assets. As the Philippines is a major producer of gold, copper and nickel, commodities that are sensitive to both global demands and logistical challenges, the current situation is both an opportunity and a crisis due to the risks brought by global inflation, rising energy costs and potential delays in project execution.
According to the Chamber’s Chairman and President, Michael Toledo, “Despite global uncertainty, we remain cautiously optimistic about the resilience of the Philippine mining industry, particularly in gold, copper, and nickel production.”
He added: “Elevated commodity prices, if sustained, present an opportunity to enhance national economic stability through increased revenues, job creation, and fiscal contributions.”
Geopolitical competition, particularly between China and the United States, has heightened the strategic value of Philippine mining. China has long been a major investor in the country’s mining sector, seeking to secure supplies for its manufacturing-heavy economy.
In contrast, the US and its allies are increasingly pursuing "friendshoring" strategies to reduce reliance on Chinese-controlled supply chains, viewing Philippine minerals as a potential alternative source.
As global powers reposition for access to strategic resources, the Philippines finds itself at the nexus of economic opportunity and geopolitical tension. How it manages its mining sector could significantly influence both regional dynamics and its own path to sustainable development.
