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Mining Trends 2022: Will the Outlook Remain Positive?
Last year saw miners experiencing record profitability and revenue. While the industry continues to benefit from relative high metal prices and opportunities from the clean energy transition and digital transformation, there are identified risks arising from COVID-19's resurgence and disruptions, potential for weaker-than-expected global economic growth, government intervention, and community opposition. Meanwhile compliance with environment, social and governance (“ESG”) standards will obligate mining companies to protect the environment, contribute to community development, and behave ethically.
On the local front, Department of Environment and Natural Resources (“DENR”) Secretary Roy Cimatu lifted the four year-old ban on the open-pit method of mining for copper, gold, silver, and complex ores. Enforced in 2017, the ban was one of the high-impact measures taken by the late DENR Secretary Regina Lopez. The former DENR secretary also ordered the closure of 26 mines. However, with the completion of the Mining Industry Coordinating Council audit which started in 2019, only 3 out of the 26 mines were deemed unsafe and the other closures were reversed.
The Chamber of Mines of the Philippines deplored the lost opportunities in the mining sector in the last decade. The chamber believed that the industry has been unjustly scrutinized and subjected to unfair publicity, which cost billions in lost revenue. Foreign direct investment (“FDI”) will remain stagnant for the industry unless regulations are eased and barriers are lowered. The ban also delayed FDIs in open pit mining projects like Sagittarius Mines Inc.’s $5.9-billion Tampakan copper project in South Cotabato and St. Augustine Gold and Copper Ltd.’s $2-billion King-king copper-gold project in Compostela Valley.
The lifting of the ban according to the DENR order, is meant to “revitalize the mining industry and usher in significant economic benefits to the country by providing raw materials for the construction and development of other industries and by increasing employment opportunities in rural areas.” With the lifting of the ban, the Department of Finance said the mining industry can become a key contributor to the nation’s economic recovery per DENR’s projection that open-pit mining will lead to the immediate development of 11 pending projects. These projects are expected to generate about PHP11 billion combined in yearly government revenue, increase annual exports by PHP36 billion, and provide employment to 22,880 people living in remote municipalities.
Economists see the Philippine economy’s continuing rebound this year after registering a 5.6 percent GDP growth in 2021. However, the outlook is threatened by the emergence of new COVID-19 variants and how the government handles them. Based on the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects, despite the spike in infections from the omicron variant, the Philippines is poised to register the fastest growth in ASEAN this year and the second highest growth in 2023. According to the World Bank, the projected economic growth rate of 5.9 percent for 2022 will be the fastest growth expected in ASEAN, while the 5.7 percent expected next year will be second only to Vietnam’s 6.5 percent.
ESG will dictate investments in mining
Miners are under increasing pressure to integrate ESG into corporate strategies, investment decisions, and stakeholder reporting. Demands from shareholders, financial institutions, local communities, national governments, customers, and the sector’s own workforce are requiring miners to adhere to ESG standards. Sustainability in mining means minimizing the consumption of resources, reducing the use of energy through new technologies, and the use of alternative energies. Mining operations must utilize cost-effective and environmentally sound extraction alternatives, and efficient biodiversity and water management.
Green transition leads to a low-carbon economy
The green transition will accelerate amidst global pressures to reduce carbon footprints. At the latest UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) summit, many mining countries pledged to bring down their methane emissions. The rise in sustainable finance and tighter ESG criteria set by financial institutions on mining projects have led to an upcoming rise in GHG emission costs due to carbon pricing. Reducing emissions will require companies to invest in renewables to energize operations and advanced technologies in their decarbonization efforts. Renewable energy technologies, green buildings, electric vehicles, solar panels, wind turbines and battery storage will rely to a great extent on minerals and metals.
Project developers and governments are moving away from investments in thermal coal. Major mining companies, driven by ESG targets, will remove thermal coal projects from their portfolios and coal mining will be dominated by small-cap, pure-play and state-owned mining companies. Coal projects will be mostly self-funded, private equity-funded or state-funded as international banks reduce their financing of coal assets.
Miners will have to contend with license to operate (LTO)
Miners are under intense scrutiny on how they contribute to the social and economic well-being of local and national governments, engage with host communities and indigenous peoples, and protect water resources and heritage sites. Needless to say, LTO is also linked to a company’s ability to access capital and financing. While metals are a critical input for green transition technology, the mining sector’s social license to operate is contending against the rising public opposition to mines arising from environmental pollution and loss of diversity. The difficulty in acquiring LTO could lead to a slow-down in new project development.
New COVID-19 variants will be a game changer
Hopefully, COVID-19-linked operational disruption will ease with increased vaccinations. However, new wave of restrictions with the omicron variant or subsequent waves will be a challenging environment for mining operations in 2022 and will cause a setback in economic recovery. Lockdowns not only hamper mine site operations but also slow down the movement of products and services in the supply chain, and affect consumption of goods. The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the increase of costs of inputs, shipping, talent and decarbonization programs. COVID-19 has challenged the deployment of investments in 2020 and to some extent in 2021. Hopefully with the roll out of vaccines especially in emerging economies, COVID-19-related operational disruptions will most likely ease in 2022, helping exploration, construction and mine works to pick up.
Mineral demand will continue to grow but metal prices to weaken
Global demand for minerals and metals especially arising from the green transition, will continue to grow despite slowing growth in 2022. The outlook for auto manufacturing, machinery, appliances, and consumer electronics sectors is positive. Households with huge savings realized during the pandemic are eager to go into revenge spending. All eyes will be on China’s property development sector woes which will put a cap on overall metal demand in 2022. Evergrande’s financial difficulties and a general slowdown in Chinese construction activity will put pressure on ferrous metal prices. Meanwhile, investments in infrastructure is expected to remain relatively stable.
Fitch Solutions forecast that most metal prices to average lower in 2022 but will remain high compared with 2016-2020 averages. Looking at 2022, slowing economic growth, slow normalization in fiscal and monetary policy, and China's property sector woes will push metal prices lower in 2022. However, prices will still average at elevated levels, higher than pre-COVID-19 levels as the market balance for most metals remain extremely tight and stocks are historically low. Existing deposits that are known or held by the majors are being depleted and new ones will be required. Investments in mines and oilfields have dropped sharply over the past five years. The result is “greenflation” in commodity prices, which have had their biggest yearly increase since 1973.
Access to Capital will be a challenge amidst upward trend in global exploration budget
Access to capital for new projects or expansions will continue to be a challenge for the industry, as investors are deterred by risks associated with ESG, LTO, resource nationalism and geopolitics. Higher ESG ratings can enable access to a larger pool of attractively priced capital. Still, elevated metal prices coupled with an increase in production across commodities in 2022 will help mining and metal companies' financial performance to remain strong next year amidst the acceleration of the green transition and opening up of new business opportunities. However, strict ESG requirements will make development of new projects potentially more difficult.
Meanwhile, a report by S&P Global Market Intelligence notes that the aggregate annual global exploration budget is expected to increase between 5% and 15% year over year for 2022. According to S&P, a faster-than-expected recovery in market conditions and easing of lockdowns allowed explorers to reactivate programs by mid-2020, which caused some campaigns to carry over into 2021.
Government intervention intensifies In 2022
Because of the economic and fiscal hardships, and rising social inequality during the pandemic while mining companies are benefitting from elevated metal prices, government intervention in the sector will remain firmly in play in 2022 posing additional risks to mining projects. Companies will be subjected to resource nationalism in the form of increased taxes and royalties, policies to boost domestic beneficiation, and the renegotiation of contracts to get better terms for the governments. Governments are also developing investment plans to boost their own production or secure minerals that will be key to the green and digital transitions. Thus, miners will also need to contend with trade wars, geopolitics of the COVID-19 pandemic, and changing governments or policies aimed at protecting strategic resources and increasing “self-sufficiency” in critical products like fossil fuels and rare earths.
Automation, digitalization, and electrification to address productivity, safety, and ESG priorities
The mine of the future will be less visible and smaller, use less water and energy, less polluting, more productive, and extract minerals more efficiently due to the application of new technologies. Incorporation of new technologies in mining is critical for companies to modernize their operations and meet increasingly stringent environmental and sustainability goals, while remaining competitive and relevant.
The automation, digitalization and electrification of mining operations has the potential to increase mine productivity, daily operational capacity, sustainable use of non-renewable resources, operational safety, and productive lifespans of mines. The transition to off-grid mining and battery storage, together with the use of renewable energy to power operations are expected to bring advantages not only in terms of CO2 emissions reduction, but also in terms of helping industry-related companies manage costs. Electrification of mines have the potential to incur lower expenses due to minimal maintenance requirements leading to a reduction of operational downtime. Operational downtime is common among diesel-powered machinery due to the extensive maintenance required for their internal mechanisms that are prone to breakdown.
While automation and electrification will result in a decrease of operational input costs, digitization produces predictable data. Data management also converts data into decision-making information. Digital innovation also allows diversification into greener products and improve transparency of reporting. These innovations include artificial intelligence, big data and satellite imagery. However, digitalization also exposes companies to cyber threats and hacking. Technical advances have also been made in waterless processing and waste disposal, and biogenic processes.
Technological change in mining will require a workforce with new skills in roles that would be familiar with new technology. There will be a shift in the skills profile for future workers who will need to manage and engage the electric and digital transformation in the industry. A reevaluation of current skills sets will need to be considered as the future mining workforce is likely to change, which will be driven primarily by the adoption of new technologies.
Opportune time for new business and operational models
Miners now operate in a more volatile environment because of ESG and technology disruptions. They should adopt new business and operational models that will deliver greater returns directly to host communities and governments, minimize waste, reduce emissions, bring more value to investors, and gain low-risk access to capital.
Mining and metal players need to accelerate their efforts to benefit from the new opportunities brought about by the green transition. These involve more exposure in energy transition materials and spinning off higher growth businesses linked to the green transition to unlock value. Miners also have opportunities to invest in product differentiation to benefit from green price premiums on lower-carbon products. Product differentiation based on green/ESG credentials and assorted price premiums will make some metals more of a specialized product sector and less of a bulk commodity material.
Conclusion
Disruptions open the industry to new risks and volatility. The local industry needs to adapt to these disruptions in light of the possibility of a more severe COVID variant and the political uncertainty in the conduct of the coming elections. The lifting of the open pit mining ban was a step in the right direction. However, the incoming government’s stand on mining will determine if the industry will be able to take advantage of the increasing global demand for minerals and metals or miss out on the boat again.
Fernando “Ronnie” S. Penarroyo specializes in Energy and Resources Law, Project Finance and Business Development. He may be contacted at fspenarroyo@penpalaw.com for any matters or inquiries in relation to the Philippine resources industry and suggested topics for commentaries. Atty. Penarroyo’s commentaries are also archived at his professional blogsite at www.penarroyo.com
References
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Epiroc’s ambitious climate targets validated as science based
Photo credit: Epiroc Philippines
Epiroc, a leading productivity and sustainability partner for the mining and infrastructure industries, has received validation by the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) for the company’s ambitious targets to reduce CO2 emissions.
Epiroc launched ambitious sustainability goals that include halving its CO2 emissions by 2030. The SBTi has now validated Epiroc’s climate targets as being in line with keeping global warming at a maximum 1.5° C, consistent with the latest climate science and the goal of the Paris Climate Agreement.
“Climate change is happening as we speak and we are working internally as well as together with our customers to reduce the impact on climate,” says Helena Hedblom, Epiroc’s President and CEO. “We are driving the industry’s transition toward a climate-friendly future, not the least with our growing offering of battery-electric equipment. Epiroc is committed to halve CO2 emissions from the use of our equipment as well as in our own production and in transport by 2030. With the approval of our goals from SBTi, our position as a sustainability leader in our industry has now been reinforced.”
In line with SBTi requirements, Epiroc commits to halve its absolute CO2 emissions in its own operations – so called Scope 1 and Scope 2 – by 2030, with 2019 as base year. However, more than 99% of Epiroc’s total CO2 emissions are other indirect emissions, with about 83% of the total coming from when customers use the products. Therefore, Epiroc has committed to halve the absolute CO2 emissions from use of sold products – so called Scope 3 – by 2030. This is industry leading and well above SBTi’s minimum requirements. The transition from diesel-powered to battery-electric machines will make a significant impact.
In addition, Epiroc’s 2030 sustainability goals also include halving CO2 emissions from transport, requiring 50% reductions of CO2 emissions from relevant suppliers, having 90% renewable energy in own operations, and offering a full range of emissions-free products, as well as ambitious targets for people. In addition to providing a growing range of battery-electric products, Epiroc’s climate actions include, among others, shifting transport from air to sea, and installing solar panels at many of its facilities.
The SBTi - a partnership among the Carbon Disclosure Project, the UN Global Compact, the World Resources Institute and the World Wide Fund for Nature – is driving ambitious, science-backed climate action in the private sector.
Epiroc presents 6th Sense, a game changer for smarter mining and infrastructure operations
There is a growing need for the mining and infrastructure industries to look to digital technologies to enhance productivity, sustainability and safety. 6th Sense is the Epiroc way to optimize customers’ processes by connecting machines, systems and people using automation, information management and system integration. With 6th Sense comes a great focus on system connectivity, using interoperability to unlock the full potential of automation for production gains at lower operating costs.
“6th Sense is a formula we have developed for getting the right solutions in place and achieving operational excellence in mining and infrastructure operations,” said Helena Hedblom, Senior Executive Vice President Mining and Infrastructure. “The name 6th Sense implies that the solution brings something extra and that is just what it does, providing a significant advantage such as track and respond to real-time working conditions and equipment needs.”
One example of Epiroc’s focus on automated and productivity-enhancing solutions comes from the Hollinger mine in Timmins, Canada. Together with long-term partner Newmont Goldcorp, Epiroc has put the world’s first fully autonomous SmartROC D65 surface drill rig in production. The operator can be positioned remotely and perform other tasks while the drill rig completes a full drill pattern autonomously. Besides increased operator safety, this boosts productivity thanks to Global Navigation Satellite System accuracy, non-stop operations and less wear and tear on drilling tools, reducing production costs and improving reliability.
Another example is the new Teleremote e-tramming option for Epiroc’s popular range of Simba long-hole underground drill rigs. The automation package includes functionalities to monitor, plan and automate drilling operations from onboard the rig or from a remote location. Not only is the tramming process faster and simpler, the e-tramming function also provides a safer work environment and reduces variability in performance.
“The 6th Sense approach is based on our customers’ needs for implementing digitalization, automation and new process integrations. We are continuously rolling out new innovative features, always with the customers’ needs in mind,”
Helena Hedblom | President

BINONDO - INTRAMUROS BRIDGE SOON OPENING TO EASE TRAFFIC WITH MORE PEOPLE BEGIN ON-SITE WORK UNDER NEW NORMAL
The Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) expressed confidence that the opening of Binondo - Intramuros Bridge Project will provide immediate impact of easing traffic especially with many people begin working on-site as Metro Manila shifted back to alert level 1.
Secretary Roger G. Mercado said that Undersecretary and Build Build Build Chief Implementer Emil K. Sadain is making sure that if good weather stays, the Binondo - Intramuros Bridge project will be opened to traffic this coming Holy Week.
This flagship infrastructure project under President Rodrigo Roa Duterte administration’s Build, Build, Build Program is expected to benefit approximately 30,000 vehicles daily passing between the two (2) busy districts of Intramuros and Binondo in Manila.
Undersecretary Sadain, in-charge of DPWH Unified Project Management Office (UPMO) Operations, visited once again the construction site on Friday, March 4, 2022 with government and private engineers and construction workers continuing the effort to beat the target opening and fully finished the project at the soonest time possible.
“Pretty soon, people can drive, walk, bike, or run across this iconic bridge”, said Undersecretary Sadain.
The Binondo-Intramuros Bridge Project involves construction of 680 linear meter two (2)-way four (4)-lane bridge connecting historic district of Intramuros at Solana Street and Riverside Drive with the bustling district of Binondo at Rentas Street/Plaza del Conde Street and Muelle dela Industria.
Funded by a grant from Government of China, the project is under contract with China Road and Bridge Corporation.
Its basket-handle tied steel arch main bridge over Pasig River is expected to become the new symbol of time-honored friendship between China and the Philippines.
The project is being implemented by UPMO Roads Management Cluster 1 (Bilateral) headed by Project Director Benjamin A. Bautista with Project Manager Melchor Kabiling as project in-charge.
This bridge project in support of Metro Manila Logistics Network Program is currently about 96.8 percent complete, with workers focus on constructing the approaches on a fill and compacted embankment to allow the roadway to meet the elevation of the bridge.
Other workers have started doing finishing works on the bridge structure including painting of steels, installation of guardrails and other safety components for motorists, pedestrians, runners and cyclists.
Construction of the new bridge adopted new project techniques utilizing prefabricated bridge elements with high performance materials sourced directly from China.
The project previously encountered delay due to the COVID-19 pandemic and right of way problems.

DPWH CONDUCTS ACTIVITY REVIEW OF LAGUNA LAKESHORE ROAD NETWORK PROJECT AT KICK-OFF MEETING
The Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) had an overview of the activity plans and methodologies for the proposed construction of a new expressway that will connect the southern province of Laguna to Metro Manila via Laguna Lake.
In his report to DPWH Secretary Roger G. Mercado, Undersecretary and Build Build Build Chief Implementer Emil K. Sadain said that the kick off meeting held Tuesday, March 1, 2022 with the Laguna Lake Development Authority (LLDA) and Consultants undertaking detailed engineering design (D.E.D.) activities provided the avenue for discussion in moving forward the technical, economical, social, and environmental aspects in the development of the Laguna Lakeshore Road Network (LLRN) Project.
The LLRN Project–Phase 1 covering Laguna Lake’s western side covers the construction of a 37.6 kilometers mainline road, 6.1 kilometers local connecting roads, and 7.3 kilometers interchanges and slip roads that stretches from Lower Bicutan all the way to Calamba City in Laguna.
The project, consists of viaduct and embankment, will have eight (
interchanges, namely: Sucat, Alabang, Tunasan, San Pedro/Biñan, Santa Rosa, Cabuyao, and Calamba.
The meeting highlights the plans and strategies on how the government can smoothly implement this flagship infrastructure project under build build build program that will strengthen road transport efficiency between Metro Manila and the neighboring province of Laguna to facilitate economic development, added Undersecretary Sadain.
The kick-off meeting in Alabang, Muntinlupa City was participated by LLDA General Manager Jaime C. Medina and Assistant General Manager Generoso M. Dungo; DPWH Unified Project Management Office (UPMO) Roads Management Cluster 2 Project Director Sharif Madsmo H. Hasim; Bureau of Design OIC Director Edwin Matanguihan; Project Manager Soledad Florencio, Overall DPWH Project Manager for Asian Devlopment Bank (ADB)-funded Projects, Project Manager Zenaida B. Mauhay, LLRN Project Team Leader; Project Manager Sol Abasa; and other LLDA and DPWH LLRN team members.
With the Consultant’s Service Contract for the D.E.D. signed on November 2021 by Secretary Mercado, the team from CTI Engineering International Co. Ltd. in joint venture with Chodai Company Limited, Oriental Consultants Global Company Limited, and Nippon Engineering Consultants Company Limited, in association with Angel Lazaro & Associates International, DCCD Enginering Corporation, TCGI Engineers and KRC Environmental Services which started their activities on December 2021 provided informative updates during the meeting.
According to Undersecretary Sadain, discussion with the stakeholders on vital issues and concerns at this early stage will prevent challenges that may arise in the future implementation of the project.
The D.E.D. will be carried out for 15 months between December 2021 to February 2023 with generous technical and financial support from the ADB via the Infrastructure Preparation and Innovation Facility (IPIF) under loan number 3886-PHI.
Upon strong representation of DPWH-UPMO Operations headed by Undersecretary Sadain, LLRN Project was approved by the NEDA Board through an Ad Referendum in October 2021.
Meanwhile, Japanese experts representing LLRN Phase 2 at the eastern side under feasibility study stage also joined the meeting via video teleconference platform.
LLRN Phases 1 and 2 will form the outer ring high standard highway for the Laguna de Bay that will provide a faster and safer alternative for motorists traveling north or south.

DPWH TO MAXIMIZE UTILIZATION OF 2022 FUNDS, WILL CARRY OUT PROJECTS SUPPORTIVE OF MANDATED FUNCTIONS IN 2023
Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) Secretary Roger G. Mercado emphasized that overall preparedness of DPWH implementing offices will enable maximum utilization of funds allocated for the Department in Fiscal Year 2022.
While budget to complete our several high-impact projects under the multi-year program is insufficient, the least we could do is to see to it that available money allocated in the Central Office and different Regions will be spent, Secretary Mercado said during the DPWH Unified Directors’ Meeting.
The meeting held February 24, 2022 in San Fernando City, La Union was attended by all the DPWH Management Committee members led by Senior Undersecretary Rafael C. Yabut, 16 Regional Directors, 6 Bureau Directors, 9 Service Directors and 6 Project Directors.
The DPWH Chief lauded DPWH Regional Office 1 as the top performing region in the implementation of 2021 regular infrastructure program and for leading efficiency in project spending of FY 2022 Budget.
Let me congratulate Regional Director Ronnel M. Tan and his men and women for the timely delivery of significant number of construction projects in 2021 and the early showing of efficiency in the utilization of budgetary resources/appropriations made in the 2022 General Appropriations Act, Secretary Mercado said.
Secretary Mercado added that implementing units that are performers, can absorb the money, and able to find right ways and means to facilitate timely imlementation and completion of priority projects like DPWH Regional Office 1 should be given more budget in 2023 so that people will be able to reap the benefits of these infrastructure.
Secretary Mercado also cited Undersecretary for Unified Project Management Office (UPMO) Operations and Build Build Build Chief Implementer Emil K. Sadain as he continuously monitor and evaluate progress of flagship infrastructure projects on the ground, hands-on and able to compare report with actual development in the field, and eventually provide action to problems or delays on the early stage.
The thrust in the budget would be the maximum utilization of fund allocations by the implementing offices.
As an affirmation of an established cohesive and hard-working DPWH organization in Region 1, Pangasinan Second District Engineering Office (DEO) headed by District Engineer Marieta B. Mendoza and Pangasinan 4th DEO under District Engineer Simplicio D. Gonzales have shown the effectivity and efficiency in managing financial resources by making it in the Top 10 DEOs with highest rank in Absorptive Capacity as of end of January 2022, placing second and ninth, respectively.
DPWH is preparing to submit a new proposed Fiscal Year 2023 budget with emphasis on the national mandate for highways that will ensure the overall growth and development of the Philippines.
The Regional Offices and Project Management Offices were instructed by the Office of the Secretary to submit budget estimates which they can actually spend.
Meanwhile, Secretary Mercado cautioned DPWH men and women and the public against individuals or groups soliciting and conducting fundraising activities for candidates in the 2022 national elections.
Secretary Mercado clarified that he has no campaign fund-raising activity nor has given permission to anyone under the Office of the Secretary to spearhed and engage in unauthorized and illegal money solicitation.
Since there is a coming election, there is no one in the Department who is authorized to namedrop the Secretary or the President to raise funds from contractors or businessmen for the election, warned Secretary Mercado.





















